Subject: Bargain / Robbed topic 2.0

Sure.

But I ve seen many sells at millions without any screenshots or poof of talent, so I suppose skills are just enough :-)

On the other hand, I recently sell myself a junior 1 million € without talent confirmed, and two juniors with proven max talent 3.3 at 1 euro, just because of poor skills distribution, no matter the sum skills.
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Yes, totally. But still a user from 2021 and look that YS... fantastic!!

https://sokker.org/statistics_team/teamID/75629

I have thought potentional for NT has influence, but...
I dont know, I have it similar
https://sokker.org/statistics_team/teamID/114712
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Smaller nations always costed more, and nations with more Alive communities like now Belgium and earlier ceska

Could be a reason, but in the end it’s not a standard price, it’s overpaid whatever the reason.

If we take talents, nt, training progression… into account and not only skills, so we can justify any « robbed » transaction. Or request cancellation of all transfers cancelled due to overpayment (if administrators continue to make this job). Good.

I agree with Mikoos, the estimations of your website are pretty bad, I am not sure that you really understand how the transfer market works.
But you already admited some time ago that you hate spending time on the transfer market so I am not surprise.
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Worst case is when you add one skill and price estimation drop.

Bargain or robbed for young players is all about the potential to make some good money/season on a player. Sumskill and age is only a small part of that. There is far more than that... Value, heigth of high skills, number of higher skills, endlevel of a youth (not just total points), number of weeks in youth, level of the youthcoach... In the end, a big part is about talent too. Talent is in a lot of cases not certain, but you can distillate the range of talent a bit with some safety margin. In a lot of cases you can't tell with such a tool if a player is overpaid because the tool doesn't have all the info and can't predict the endlevel and price of the player with an estimated talent and fixed trainingplan after a couple of seasons. A lot of the players that are numerous times overpaid according to the tool are actually nice bargains bexause the will go for a lot more money with a good trainingplan a couple of seasons later.

The website estimation by juytt is quite good for players around 25-30yo. For other ages, the market is more impredictable.

Sokker DB can never make good predictions, there is too many factors making impact on end price, but I think is more difficult to make sample for cheap players: assuming expensive players come with some average 4.0 talent anyway.
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for younger ages the market is more right than the tool I would say.

I am not agree about "potential". Market price is mainly base on skills at age/week, not on speculative or future price.

When you buy a 16y old, let's say 1M€, and you know it could worth 4 million later with training, it doesnt mean: 1) it worth 4 millions at 16y 2) it could worth 4 millions and more until you have a proof of talent.

No tool can replace an experienced player, who can check talent/progression and plan trainings before any buys. But for everyone, getting a median price by comparison it's really better than nothing.

Beyond that. I even have a hunch that a price-comparison tool will hinder those who take advantage of price ignorance :-p
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But i am sure you have been banned from forum multi-times. Your main game is trolling, until an admin will stop you again.
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You made good effort and great job with SKTables! As you said, is better as nothing! And sometimes price is irrational low/high anyway, depending on number of Users logged at this time, following particular player.
Overall value is probably not so reliable as f.e. Skill Index?

When users ask for some opinions about market price of youngsters they bought, they expect some serious answers, not an estimation coming from a tool that obviously cannot predict the market price of such 17yo player.

Or maybe that was an hidden way for you to advertise your website, then it's successful !

It would be great if you don't heavily edit your comment after making it. I read your response once and now it's completely changed, actually worth responding :p


I’ve already compare and test many estimations against final bid. often pretty bad is a definitive opinion, not so often true.

It's bad for high mid sumskill 16-17yo players, because you often compare them with transfers of inferior players.


But it doesn’t mean it’s worth millions on market now just because of its future skills.

I said - "I don't expect the market price would be 2.5M now, maybe something like 1M average (for "used" player without any talent info)." Your tool gave me absurdly low estimations based on transfers of some weak players. In 16-17yo market every skill point matters, 3 skill points less in mid skills and you can often divide expected price by 10.


Finally, I try to search in your db similar skilled players judging from its « mid » skills. No surprise, i find only 2 results. Position sumskills is restrictive and your player is detected as « wing » so I prefer to remove position sumskills.

Skill distribution matters at 16-17yo, but is not as important as mid sumskill, and surely one can't ignore that sumskill when evaluating youth not-attacker player. Sure, players with the same mid sumskill but high def+pace might go higher then avg, as it's relatively easy to get him to higher value. Maybe players fitted for wing training (low def) might go higher than avg player.
It doesn't matter that my players has [9] in playmaker and [2] in passing. It could be reversed. Or it could be [6] in one and [5] in the other skill (...actually 9+2 is better than 6+5, it's even slightly better than 6+6, that's one of the reasons I bought him). He is 17yo, he will obviously get training to even these skills. There is no reason to only compare him with high playmaker players.

Only 2 results? Here are: ss24 17yo at 1st week, ss25 17yo at 2nd week, ss23 16yo at 13th week, with pace limited to 4-8 and striker up to 5 (to exclude strikers); looking only at seasons 67-69. Comparable with my player, as one week of training ~= 1 point in sumskill at this age.


There are outliers - some (high total sumskill) fresh youths going for 2.5M+, two players under 780k. Without these outliers you get about 0.8-2M range. Meanwhile your algorithm gave my player estimation under 100k euro, as it compares him with players that are few skills worse.


It’s ending to this: geston db query
No surprise, median price is closer to 100k than millions. And certainly, most of similar players didn’t even appear in this search for one reason : they are not even sell.

If you want to make good value estimation tool then you need to understand how market works. I'll repeat myself again, it's absolutely wrong to compare my player with players having mid sumskill lower than 23 (14 out of 16 transfers in this weird search you linked).


1) Looking at sumskills of position is opinionated. It’s a false-good idea because you ending with very different prices for many different skills for a particular / artificial position.

I don't end with very different prices. I see a reasonable 0.8-2M price range excluding outliers, higher if it was a fresh youth with high total sumskill. Differences easily explained by market randomness / talent info / players being resold after few weeks without good talent information (which usually is "hidden" bad talent info). I believe it's a good estimation.

2) My own transfers db is not enough large and i compare skills by skills, so I need to extend to 3 weeks to catch more players for comparison.

You are free to copy transfers from my db into yours, I have nothing against it.