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Subject: Bargain / Robbed topic 2.0
It would be great if you don't heavily edit your comment after making it. I read your response once and now it's completely changed, actually worth responding :p
I’ve already compare and test many estimations against final bid. often pretty bad is a definitive opinion, not so often true.
It's bad for high mid sumskill 16-17yo players, because you often compare them with transfers of inferior players.
But it doesn’t mean it’s worth millions on market now just because of its future skills.
I said - "I don't expect the market price would be 2.5M now, maybe something like 1M average (for "used" player without any talent info)." Your tool gave me absurdly low estimations based on transfers of some weak players. In 16-17yo market every skill point matters, 3 skill points less in mid skills and you can often divide expected price by 10.
Finally, I try to search in your db similar skilled players judging from its « mid » skills. No surprise, i find only 2 results. Position sumskills is restrictive and your player is detected as « wing » so I prefer to remove position sumskills.
Skill distribution matters at 16-17yo, but is not as important as mid sumskill, and surely one can't ignore that sumskill when evaluating youth not-attacker player. Sure, players with the same mid sumskill but high def+pace might go higher then avg, as it's relatively easy to get him to higher value. Maybe players fitted for wing training (low def) might go higher than avg player.
It doesn't matter that my players has [9] in playmaker and [2] in passing. It could be reversed. Or it could be [6] in one and [5] in the other skill (...actually 9+2 is better than 6+5, it's even slightly better than 6+6, that's one of the reasons I bought him). He is 17yo, he will obviously get training to even these skills. There is no reason to only compare him with high playmaker players.
Only 2 results? Here are: ss24 17yo at 1st week, ss25 17yo at 2nd week, ss23 16yo at 13th week, with pace limited to 4-8 and striker up to 5 (to exclude strikers); looking only at seasons 67-69. Comparable with my player, as one week of training ~= 1 point in sumskill at this age.
There are outliers - some (high total sumskill) fresh youths going for 2.5M+, two players under 780k. Without these outliers you get about 0.8-2M range. Meanwhile your algorithm gave my player estimation under 100k euro, as it compares him with players that are few skills worse.
It’s ending to this: geston db query
No surprise, median price is closer to 100k than millions. And certainly, most of similar players didn’t even appear in this search for one reason : they are not even sell.
If you want to make good value estimation tool then you need to understand how market works. I'll repeat myself again, it's absolutely wrong to compare my player with players having mid sumskill lower than 23 (14 out of 16 transfers in this weird search you linked).
1) Looking at sumskills of position is opinionated. It’s a false-good idea because you ending with very different prices for many different skills for a particular / artificial position.
I don't end with very different prices. I see a reasonable 0.8-2M price range excluding outliers, higher if it was a fresh youth with high total sumskill. Differences easily explained by market randomness / talent info / players being resold after few weeks without good talent information (which usually is "hidden" bad talent info). I believe it's a good estimation.
2) My own transfers db is not enough large and i compare skills by skills, so I need to extend to 3 weeks to catch more players for comparison.
You are free to copy transfers from my db into yours, I have nothing against it.
I’ve already compare and test many estimations against final bid. often pretty bad is a definitive opinion, not so often true.
It's bad for high mid sumskill 16-17yo players, because you often compare them with transfers of inferior players.
But it doesn’t mean it’s worth millions on market now just because of its future skills.
I said - "I don't expect the market price would be 2.5M now, maybe something like 1M average (for "used" player without any talent info)." Your tool gave me absurdly low estimations based on transfers of some weak players. In 16-17yo market every skill point matters, 3 skill points less in mid skills and you can often divide expected price by 10.
Finally, I try to search in your db similar skilled players judging from its « mid » skills. No surprise, i find only 2 results. Position sumskills is restrictive and your player is detected as « wing » so I prefer to remove position sumskills.
Skill distribution matters at 16-17yo, but is not as important as mid sumskill, and surely one can't ignore that sumskill when evaluating youth not-attacker player. Sure, players with the same mid sumskill but high def+pace might go higher then avg, as it's relatively easy to get him to higher value. Maybe players fitted for wing training (low def) might go higher than avg player.
It doesn't matter that my players has [9] in playmaker and [2] in passing. It could be reversed. Or it could be [6] in one and [5] in the other skill (...actually 9+2 is better than 6+5, it's even slightly better than 6+6, that's one of the reasons I bought him). He is 17yo, he will obviously get training to even these skills. There is no reason to only compare him with high playmaker players.
Only 2 results? Here are: ss24 17yo at 1st week, ss25 17yo at 2nd week, ss23 16yo at 13th week, with pace limited to 4-8 and striker up to 5 (to exclude strikers); looking only at seasons 67-69. Comparable with my player, as one week of training ~= 1 point in sumskill at this age.
There are outliers - some (high total sumskill) fresh youths going for 2.5M+, two players under 780k. Without these outliers you get about 0.8-2M range. Meanwhile your algorithm gave my player estimation under 100k euro, as it compares him with players that are few skills worse.
It’s ending to this: geston db query
No surprise, median price is closer to 100k than millions. And certainly, most of similar players didn’t even appear in this search for one reason : they are not even sell.
If you want to make good value estimation tool then you need to understand how market works. I'll repeat myself again, it's absolutely wrong to compare my player with players having mid sumskill lower than 23 (14 out of 16 transfers in this weird search you linked).
1) Looking at sumskills of position is opinionated. It’s a false-good idea because you ending with very different prices for many different skills for a particular / artificial position.
I don't end with very different prices. I see a reasonable 0.8-2M price range excluding outliers, higher if it was a fresh youth with high total sumskill. Differences easily explained by market randomness / talent info / players being resold after few weeks without good talent information (which usually is "hidden" bad talent info). I believe it's a good estimation.
2) My own transfers db is not enough large and i compare skills by skills, so I need to extend to 3 weeks to catch more players for comparison.
You are free to copy transfers from my db into yours, I have nothing against it.
It would be great if you don't heavily edit your comment after making it.
I save topic from additional comments. But sure I can try in one shot ;-) (edit: I have failed)
I'll repeat myself again, it's absolutely wrong to compare my player with players having mid sumskill lower than 23 (14 out of 16 transfers in this weird search you linked).
(…) Skill distribution matters at 16-17yo, but is not as important as mid sumskill
But again, It’s opinionated. I compare skills by skills just because I think buyers looking at skills they want, at a price they want, no matter your opinion or mine.
If position sumskills is important for you, it’s ok. But it doesn’t mean it is important for all buyers all transactions in the market? Some buyers are maybe as smart as you, some are maybe as stupid as me and don’t look at position sumskills.
Position sumskills is more important for you than skills distrib. But judging for your screenshot we see :
1) many different positions (mostly def) for your so-called “mid sumskills”.
2) none of those players have lower def skills than your « wing sumskills » player and only one have two skills lower than 3.
3) usually, balanced skills are more valuable.
4) no evidence in this list for a relation between prices and sumskills position. Sumskills (only) seems even more “obvious” (higher price goes to the one with the most sumskills, not mid sum)
I can admit that grouping by sumskills position It’s more easy to find similars than searching by proximity of skills. But it doesn’t mean it’s work better.
Since your player is unbalanced, proximity of skills don’t help with so few comparisons (in your own db too), that’s the limit of using proximity. So, I am agree that it’s difficult to confirm it worth less than 100k. And it’s even more difficult to confirm it worth more.
But it’s very abusive to say it is “usually bad estimation” for young’s just because of your own expectations. It’s difficult by essence (just talent screenshot could change a price) neither this tool nor you can be absolutely right.
(edited)
I save topic from additional comments. But sure I can try in one shot ;-) (edit: I have failed)
I'll repeat myself again, it's absolutely wrong to compare my player with players having mid sumskill lower than 23 (14 out of 16 transfers in this weird search you linked).
(…) Skill distribution matters at 16-17yo, but is not as important as mid sumskill
But again, It’s opinionated. I compare skills by skills just because I think buyers looking at skills they want, at a price they want, no matter your opinion or mine.
If position sumskills is important for you, it’s ok. But it doesn’t mean it is important for all buyers all transactions in the market? Some buyers are maybe as smart as you, some are maybe as stupid as me and don’t look at position sumskills.
Position sumskills is more important for you than skills distrib. But judging for your screenshot we see :
1) many different positions (mostly def) for your so-called “mid sumskills”.
2) none of those players have lower def skills than your « wing sumskills » player and only one have two skills lower than 3.
3) usually, balanced skills are more valuable.
4) no evidence in this list for a relation between prices and sumskills position. Sumskills (only) seems even more “obvious” (higher price goes to the one with the most sumskills, not mid sum)
I can admit that grouping by sumskills position It’s more easy to find similars than searching by proximity of skills. But it doesn’t mean it’s work better.
Since your player is unbalanced, proximity of skills don’t help with so few comparisons (in your own db too), that’s the limit of using proximity. So, I am agree that it’s difficult to confirm it worth less than 100k. And it’s even more difficult to confirm it worth more.
But it’s very abusive to say it is “usually bad estimation” for young’s just because of your own expectations. It’s difficult by essence (just talent screenshot could change a price) neither this tool nor you can be absolutely right.
(edited)
When Mikoos says that sumskills are important that's not an opinion, that's how the transfer market works.
If yourself don't understand how it works, then that's not surprising that your tool gives so bad estimations.
And that becomes a little bit problematic when you use these estimations in order to answer users queries on this forum since that's misleading.
If yourself don't understand how it works, then that's not surprising that your tool gives so bad estimations.
And that becomes a little bit problematic when you use these estimations in order to answer users queries on this forum since that's misleading.
Skillsum is 85% the price, nationality and skill distribution each 7,5% on all younger defs and mids, since you can train them in whatever to fix the distribution ages before they old
For strikers its also skillsum 80%, secondaries and nationality 10% each
Your tool can only judge competitive players where their skill distribution finally matter.... and it gets closer and closer to that, the older the player
(edited)
For strikers its also skillsum 80%, secondaries and nationality 10% each
Your tool can only judge competitive players where their skill distribution finally matter.... and it gets closer and closer to that, the older the player
(edited)
So deep arguments, from a multi-ban user.
But If you want to challenge a stupid machine Vs your genius knowledges, it could be an interesting challenge. Ready ?
But If you want to challenge a stupid machine Vs your genius knowledges, it could be an interesting challenge. Ready ?
For sure I am not using your tool in order to decide to buy or not a youngster and with my previous team I reached the top in few years using my own judgement for buy / sell players with profit so yes I am ready for this challenge.
All experiences users here (adaca, mikoos) are telling you the same but you think you have the ultimate truth, so go on.
Edit : By questionning the importance of the sumskills for youngsters evaluation, you're either acting in bad faith or you're not following at all the transfer market so you don't know what you're talking about.
(edited)
All experiences users here (adaca, mikoos) are telling you the same but you think you have the ultimate truth, so go on.
Edit : By questionning the importance of the sumskills for youngsters evaluation, you're either acting in bad faith or you're not following at all the transfer market so you don't know what you're talking about.
(edited)
Where comes those percent prices ? % suggesting by you for your own buys, or a study from real prices on market ?
Every skills distrib could be fix with training for young’s (and talent) but it’s not fixed at the time you buy.
Did you suggest that whatever skills are, balanced or unbalanced it doesn’t change the price on market ? I expect buyers should prefer balanced players, but why not, I don’t know, ultimately I could check in database.
What do you mean by competitive player ? Top players or players who reach their max skills?
Top players are usually hard to estimate, something rare is inestimable by essence.
Players reaching the max skills (28y players to simplify) ? I ever check the final prices Vs price estimation for many 20y+ old players, the majority was a correct price in a range of proximity / median prices. So I’ve doubts this tool could only estimate « competitive » players.
To be clear, I don’t care about opinions. Your own opinions are the best for you, better than any tool.
Every skills distrib could be fix with training for young’s (and talent) but it’s not fixed at the time you buy.
Did you suggest that whatever skills are, balanced or unbalanced it doesn’t change the price on market ? I expect buyers should prefer balanced players, but why not, I don’t know, ultimately I could check in database.
What do you mean by competitive player ? Top players or players who reach their max skills?
Top players are usually hard to estimate, something rare is inestimable by essence.
Players reaching the max skills (28y players to simplify) ? I ever check the final prices Vs price estimation for many 20y+ old players, the majority was a correct price in a range of proximity / median prices. So I’ve doubts this tool could only estimate « competitive » players.
To be clear, I don’t care about opinions. Your own opinions are the best for you, better than any tool.
You suggest, you expect, you think... but actually you dont know.
Mikoos explained you why you were wrong so please stop trying to be right all the time.
Just follow closely the transfer market for young players at each stage of the season and you will understand very quickly how important sumskills are and how broken your tool is.
But you don't care about opinions, so I guess the debate is over and we can move one...
Mikoos explained you why you were wrong so please stop trying to be right all the time.
Just follow closely the transfer market for young players at each stage of the season and you will understand very quickly how important sumskills are and how broken your tool is.
But you don't care about opinions, so I guess the debate is over and we can move one...
It is much better to buy young players when they are not balanced and when they have as high pace as possible
When buying defs/mids its best if their pm/passing are as low as possible and when buying atts its best if their tech is as low as possible
When buying defs/mids its best if their pm/passing are as low as possible and when buying atts its best if their tech is as low as possible
This is your opinion. It doesn't mean it is right or wrong (I tend to agree). But it doesn't mean it's true for all buyers for all transactions in market. There's opinion then reality, sometimes a big gap between.
There is the reality of the transfer market unfortunately for you.
A 17yo with MID sum skills = 24 has to be compared with 17yo players with similar MID sum skills at the same stage of the season, and not with 17yo players having MID sum skills = 20 like your tool does.
Period.
+ full skills sums also matter since they can be a proof of great talent.
Most of the people know that and they make the market prices since they are bidding on the players with better sum skills for each position...
(edited)
A 17yo with MID sum skills = 24 has to be compared with 17yo players with similar MID sum skills at the same stage of the season, and not with 17yo players having MID sum skills = 20 like your tool does.
Period.
+ full skills sums also matter since they can be a proof of great talent.
Most of the people know that and they make the market prices since they are bidding on the players with better sum skills for each position...
(edited)
Mikoos doesn't need you to answer for him, i think ?
Plus, his answers are a source of enrichment for me, not yours, I prefer.
Unfortunately for you, Mikoos’s screenshot show you that same sumskills position players result to a range of prices of 400k to 6 millions for 16y old, and 400k to 4 millions for 17y.
It doesn’t mean sumskills position could help, but for sure, sumskills position alone can’t help. Period.
(edited)
Plus, his answers are a source of enrichment for me, not yours, I prefer.
Unfortunately for you, Mikoos’s screenshot show you that same sumskills position players result to a range of prices of 400k to 6 millions for 16y old, and 400k to 4 millions for 17y.
It doesn’t mean sumskills position could help, but for sure, sumskills position alone can’t help. Period.
(edited)
Sure they are some variance, this is not an exact science. I am not sure what you want to shows there.
But the estimations given by your tool are much more worse and most of the time absurde for young players since you dont consider sumskills.
I just found it a pity to put so much efforts on an external tool and to challenge every constructive comments that might be addressed to you by Mikoos, Adaca and others.
(edited)
But the estimations given by your tool are much more worse and most of the time absurde for young players since you dont consider sumskills.
I just found it a pity to put so much efforts on an external tool and to challenge every constructive comments that might be addressed to you by Mikoos, Adaca and others.
(edited)